Forecasting [electronic resource] : an essential introduction / Jennifer L. Castle, Michael P. Clements, David F. Hendry.
- 作者： Castle, Jennifer, 1979-
- 其他作者：
- 出版： New Haven ;London : Yale University Press c2019.
- 主題： Economic forecasting.
- 版本：1st ed.
- ISBN： 9780300248241 (electronic bk.)
- URL：
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- 一般註：Includes bibliographical references and index. Why do we need forecasts? -- How do we make forecasts? -- Where are we before we forecast? -- How do we judge forecasts? -- How uncertain are our forecasts? -- Are some real world events unpredictable? -- Why do systematic forecast failures occur? -- Can we avoid systematic forecast failures? -- How do we automatically detect breaks? -- Can we forecast breaks before they hit? -- Can we improve forecasts during breaks? -- Would more information be useful? -- Can econometrics improve forecasting? -- Can you trust economic forecasts? 110年度臺灣學術電子書暨資料庫聯盟採購
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讀者標籤：
- 系統號： 000289032 | 機讀編目格式
館藏資訊
Concise, engaging, and highly intuitive—this accessible guide equips you with an understanding of all the basic principles of forecasting Making accurate predictions about the economy has always been difficult, as F. A. Hayek noted when accepting his Nobel Prize in economics, but today forecasters have to contend with increasing complexity and unpredictable feedback loops. In this accessible and engaging guide, David Hendry, Michael Clements, and Jennifer Castle provide a concise and highly intuitive overview of the process and problems of forecasting. They explain forecasting concepts including how to evaluate forecasts, how to respond to forecast failures, and the challenges of forecasting accurately in a rapidly changing world. Topics covered include: What is a forecast? How are forecasts judged? And how can forecast failure be avoided? Concepts are illustrated using real-world examples including financial crises, the uncertainty of Brexit, and the Federal Reserve’s record on forecasting. This is an ideal introduction for university students studying forecasting, practitioners new to the field and for general readers interested in how economists forecast.
摘要註
Making accurate predictions about the economy has always been difficult, but today forecasters have to contend with increasing complexity and unpredictable feedback loops. This introduction provides an accessible overview of the processes and difficulties of forecasting. For students, for practitioners new to the field, and for general readers interested in how economists forecast.
